Gartner Predicts: $7 Trillion in AI Infrastructure Will Recoup Only About Half the Investment by 2030

IT之家 October 20 news: Gartner stated on the 14th of this month local time that total global AI infrastructure investment during 2026~2030 will reach 7 trillion US dollars (IT之家 note: approximately 46.86 trillion RMB at current exchange rates), butthese investments will generate at most only 3.6 trillion US dollars in revenue by 2030。

Senior Director Analyst Will Sommer said that, taking financing costs and a 12% return on investment into account, revenue needed to offset the 7 trillion US dollar investment would have to reach 8.5 trillion US dollars, andthere is a gap of about 5 trillion US dollars relative to its revenue forecast。

The firm believes that sustained AI infrastructure investment may not achieve the 12% return target until 2032, and before then more than 4 trillion US dollars in assets could face impairment risk.

The firm predictsthat by 2030 more than 80% of Neoclouds_{(emerging AI cloud service providers)}will cease independent operations, because they will be unable to recoup their investment within chip iteration cycles against limited growth in industry spending.

Reference

• Gartner Says That More Than $3.5 Trillion in AI Infrastructure Spending Could Be at Risk of Impairment by the End of 2030

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