The Wall Street Journal reported on November 3 that last week's tech stock stampede has rewritten the script for Anthropic's IPO valuation. Institutions involved in the IPO have made it known: the valuation at listing at the end of this month should fall between 1.5 trillion and 1.6 trillion USD, far below the nearly 2 trillion USD previously discussed.
The trigger was the violent volatility a week ago: the Nasdaq retreated about ten percent from its peak, Intel suffered a 29% single-day plunge, its largest one-day drop in more than forty years; and Google's Alphabet shed about 500 billion USD in market value after its earnings report. The panic traveled down the chain to this AI star that has not yet rung the bell.
The AI narrative faces a triple interrogation, and pricing becomes the market's touchstone
Investor concerns had long spilled over from the broader market. People familiar with the matter said worries about excessive AI exposure are mounting, political resistance to data centers adds an extra variable, and Amazon, Meta and others still have no timetable for monetizing AI. With doubts stacking up, Anthropic's pricing has become a landmark event for gauging market appetite.
The company has not yet finalized its valuation or the size of the share sale. Some investors expect CFO Rao to price conservatively, ensuring first-day buyers see gains — some judge that even opening at 1.5 trillion, the closing market value could be pushed back toward 2 trillion, just as SpaceX rose 19.22% on its first day, surpassing a market value of 2.11 trillion. Anthropic will begin its roadshow as early as next week, targeting a listing before Thanksgiving; its prospectus shows quarterly revenue of 17 billion USD as of September 30, up from about 11.6 billion USD in the prior quarter, but offset by about 600 million USD in price cuts. As tech stocks enter a "show me the results" phase, this IPO tests the mettle of the AI story in the public market.