IT Home reported on October 17 that, according to a report by Business Insider earlier today (17th), employees at Anthropic generally believe that AI will replace most of their work, while the majority of American workers hold a different view.
Anthropic’s latest research compared the results of a surveyof American adults and 1,334 company employees. Most Anthropic employees expect that by 2030,at least 80% of their work can be done by AI, while only about 5% of American workers share the same view.
Research shows that there is a significant difference between Anthropic employees and ordinary Americans’ judgments on the future development of AI. Regarding the pace of AI advancements, the efficiency gains in work time, and the speed of future economic growth, the expectations of Anthropic employees are much more optimistic.
Based on the median value of the survey results, Anthropic employees expect that by the end of 2030, 95% of the work required to develop a new AI model will be able to be done by AI.
Peter McRory, chief economist at Anthropic, believes that employees’ judgments may help the outside world prepare for more advanced AI: “We published this study because Anthropic is involved in AI applications”About a year and a half ahead of the entire economic system. In other words, the changes taking place within Anthropic may indicate what will happen to the entire industry in the future.
Anthropic also investigated how workers use AI and their views on the future impact of AI. The research shows that American adults and Anthropic employees have largely the same understanding of what AI can do currently. However, there is a disagreement between the two groups regarding how quickly AI will progress, its wide range of applications, and how much time it can be saved or productivity can be improved.
According to reports by IT Home, there may be more than one reason for the above differences. Anthropic employees can get more budget for using AI tools, and they often have the opportunity to test models that have not been released publicly yet. In contrast, ordinary American workers are more likely to engage in physical labor or work in service industries.
Studies show that workers in the engineering, production, and transportation industries believe that the proportion of jobs that AI can take over will be relatively low by 2030. Employees at Anthropic, professionals in the technology industry, and respondents in the business and financial sectors expect that AI will take on more work.
In terms of employment prospects, most Anthropic employees expect the unemployment rate in the United States toexceed 12% by 2030; however, many U.S. workers believe that the unemployment rate willnot exceed 8%, or remain around 8%. The current unemployment rate in the U.S. is 4.2%.
As for how AI will actually impact the job market, current research has not reached a consensus.
Anthropic researchers also used questionnaire responses to estimate the respondents’ expectations for economic growth. Calculated based on the median, the GDP growth rate for American adults in 2030 is 5.4%, while that for Anthropic employees is as high as 17.1%. In contrast, the US GDP grew by 2.2% last year.